Research/Executive summary
The Peace Dividend Mandate
A structural framework for pricing conflict externalities
Christopher Louis · Peace Economy InstituteORCID 0009-0008-4590-2792
Abstract
Global military expenditure reached $2.887 trillion in 2025, the highest outside a world war and the eleventh consecutive annual increase. The Institute for Economics and Peace puts the economic impact of violence at $21.8 trillion the same year, a figure that has run between $17.5 trillion and $21.8 trillion across recent editions. Against contemporaneous military expenditure, that is a ratio of roughly 5:1 to 7:1.
That ratio is the unpriced externality. The summary states the Mandate, the five-tier schedule, the certification authority, the three theoretical extensions, the scale of mandated peace investment, and the three-phase path that does not depend on a Security Council vote.
Use this document
The summary is the right first reading for a board, a ministry, or a newsroom. The working paper is the argument. Appendix A is the mathematics. All three are released for citation, critique, and comment.
Ratio classifications are governed by a conflict-level index drawing on Uppsala UCDP, the Global Peace Index, and UNHCR. The 5:1 tier is the lower bound of the documented range, not a figure chosen for force.
Suggested citation
Louis, Christopher. “The Peace Dividend Mandate: A Structural Framework for Pricing Conflict Externalities.” Executive summary, Peace Economy Institute, September 2026.
© 2026 Christopher Louis / Peace Economy Institute. Released under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license (CC BY-NC 4.0): shareable and adaptable for non-commercial purposes with attribution.